The International Labour Organization (ILO) recently released the latest update of its “World Employment and Social Outlook” report, significantly revising downward its forecast for global employment growth in 2025. According to the latest estimates, 53 million new jobs will be created globally in 2025, down from the previous projection of 60 million—equivalent to a reduction of about 7 million jobs. The global employment growth rate has also been adjusted from the earlier forecast of 1.7% to 1.5%.
This revision reflects a further deterioration in the global economic outlook. Latest data indicate that global GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2025, lower than the previous estimate of 3.2%. This projection is based on the International Monetary Fund’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook report.
The report states: “Global economic growth is significantly below expectations. If geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue to escalate, and we fail to address the structural challenges reshaping the employment landscape, the global labor market will face more severe negative ripple effects.”
U.S. Consumer Demand Has Broad Impact on Global Employment
The report analyzes the extent to which global employment depends on U.S. consumer demand. Data show that approximately 84 million jobs in 71 countries are directly or indirectly linked to spending by U.S. consumers. With rising global trade tensions, these jobs and associated incomes face increasing risks of disruption.
The Asia-Pacific region is the most affected, with a total of 56 million jobs at stake. Canada and Mexico show the highest levels of dependency, with relevant positions accounting for 17.1% of total employment in both countries.
Declining Labor Income Share Highlights Disconnect Between Economic Growth and Worker Compensation
The report warns that the share of global labor income in GDP has declined from 53.0% in 2014 to 52.4% in 2024, with the sharpest decreases observed in Africa and the Americas.
The authors argue that the decline in labor income share underscores the growing disconnect between economic growth and compensation for workers, exacerbating income inequality on a global scale.
Growth in High-Skill Jobs Accelerates, While Gender and Educational Mismatches Persist
The report reveals that employment is rapidly shifting toward high-skill positions, with women showing particularly strong growth in this area. From 2013 to 2023, the proportion of women in high-skill occupations rose from 21.2% to 23.2%, outpacing the 18% increase among men during the same period. However, occupational gender segregation remains: women are underrepresented in industries such as construction and overrepresented in clerical and caregiving roles.
Despite rising education levels, the labor market still suffers from significant educational mismatches. As of 2022, only 47.7% of workers held qualifications that matched job requirements. Over the past decade, the proportion of underqualified workers fell from 37.9% to 33.4%, while the proportion of overqualified workers increased from 15.5% to 18.9%.
Artificial Intelligence’s Far-Reaching Impact Calls for Inclusive Technological Transformation
On technological change, the report notes that nearly one-quarter of workers could be affected by generative artificial intelligence. Medium-skill jobs face moderate impacts, while high-skill roles carry greater risks of tasks being highly automated.
The report states: “This report is a wake-up call, but it also points the way forward. We can make a difference. By strengthening social protection, investing in skills development, promoting social dialogue, and building an inclusive labor market, we have the ability to ensure that technological change benefits everyone. Achieving this goal requires urgent action, ambition, and a spirit of solidarity.”