Trump's Agenda to "Abolish Birthright Citizenship" Blocked by Federal District Court On July 10, a federal district court judge in New Hampshire, Joseph Laplante, issued a ruling that the lawsuits against Trump’s executive order to “abolish birthright citizenship” can proceed as a class action. Laplante also issued a nationwide preliminary injunction, preventing the executive order from taking effect during the case's proceedings. This ruling is seen as a significant judicial setback to Trump's immigration policy, especially against the backdrop of the U.S. Supreme Court recently weakening the nationwide injunction powers of lower courts, making it even more symbolic. On January 20, 2025, the White House released the presidential executive order titled “Protecting the Meaning and Value of U.S. Citizenship”. This order advocates for a reinterpretation of the 14th Amendment's "birthright citizenship" clause, clearly stating that children born in the U.S. to two categories of parents will no longer automatically gain U.S. citizenship: First, children born to mothers illegally residing in the U.S. and fathers who are neither U.S. citizens nor green card holders; second, children born to mothers with temporary lawful status (such as student, tourist, or work visas) and fathers who do not have permanent legal residency status. The…...

The rapid development of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in the past two years has significantly accelerated enterprise acceptance and deployment of AI. However, infrastructure limitations, disconnections between AI deployment and execution, and a lack of data foundation are slowing the implementation of AI at the enterprise level. Alaric, an author on the Vancisco website, recently pointed out this phenomenon. Alaric noted that as businesses transition from experimental phases to enterprise-level AI solutions, they face several key obstacles. A study surveying over 2,300 enterprise executives found that more than 90% of them believe outdated on-premise deployment systems and architectures are limiting the effective deployment of generative AI, leading to performance bottlenecks and complicating data integration. Additionally, neglecting data modernization and rushing to deploy AI tools are also major risks. Data Issues and AI Implementation Challenges Regarding data, Alaric emphasized that a weak data foundation is a major challenge for enterprises in applying AI. Without clean, interconnected, and contextual data, AI systems cannot operate effectively, nor can they scale sustainably. If data is scattered across departments and outdated systems, lacks governance or a structured database, real-time, trustworthy decision-making becomes impossible. After the rise of generative AI models like ChatGPT, many enterprises began…...

Amid continued geopolitical tensions and the profound reshaping of the global energy landscape, the recent passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill” by the U.S. Congress marks a watershed policy event. The bill not only redefines U.S. support for new energy but also systematically excludes Chinese enterprises from America’s future energy strategy. On the surface, this appears to be a technical adjustment in fiscal, subsidy, and tax policy. In reality, it reflects a wholesale reprioritization of U.S. national security and signals a clear strategic divergence between China and the U.S. in green energy and high-tech industries. Policy Shift: A Return to Fossil Fuels, Green Energy No Longer Favored At its core, the legislation sends an unmistakable signal. On one hand, the U.S. will terminate multiple clean energy subsidy mechanisms under the Inflation Reduction Act, affecting tax incentives for wind, solar, and renewable electricity, marking the beginning of a phase-out in national support for clean energy. On the other hand, the bill specifically prohibits electric vehicles and key battery products containing supply chains from “China and other countries” from qualifying for tax credits, and formally introduces the “Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC)” mechanism, institutionally restricting Chinese-backed enterprises from participating in U.S. energy…...

On July 7 (ET), former President Trump sent letters to Japan, South Korea, and 12 other countries announcing tariff increases that will take effect on August 1. The new tariff rates are largely in line with the reciprocal tariffs announced in early April. For now, markets have opted for “rational disregard,” waiting for further data to confirm the impact. Current Status of U.S. Tariff Implementation: Trump Delays Tariff Suspension Deadline, May Issue Letters in Batches As of May, the average U.S. tariff rate stood at 7.4%, with the pace of implementation slower than initially expected. Latest figures show the tariff rate on Chinese goods is 38.6%, Japan 9.3%, the UK 6.2%, Vietnam 4.8%, and Germany 6%. Among major product categories, the import tariff on automobiles is 13.4%, steel products 29.5%, aluminum 23%, plastics 11.3%, and electrical equipment 8.3%. On July 7, the U.S. announced it would raise tariffs on 14 countries, with the effective date postponed to August 1. The initial reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 triggered a stronger-than-expected market reaction, prompting Trump on April 9 to temporarily suspend them for 90 days and instead implement only a baseline 10% tariff. Now, by setting the effective date at August…...

On July 8 (ET), during a Cabinet meeting, former President Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals, at levels far exceeding the market’s expected 25% range. Unlike his earlier reciprocal tariffs, this round would mainly rely on Section 232 investigations initiated by the U.S. Department of Commerce. What Is a Section 232 Investigation? Section 232 investigations are authorized under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, allowing the U.S. Department of Commerce to assess whether specific imports threaten national security and to submit its findings to the President. Based on the report, the President has the authority to impose measures, including tariffs, to address any identified threats. How long does an investigation usually take?By statute, the Commerce Department must deliver its findings to the President within 270 days of launching an investigation, focusing primarily on whether the imports in question harm U.S. national security. The President then has 90 days to decide whether to act. In practice, investigations typically last between five and twelve months. Of the eight investigations completed since 2017, six took nine months, one took five months, and one lasted twelve months. What factors are considered?A Section 232 review evaluates U.S. domestic…...

Demand for Computing Power Continues to Surge, NVIDIA’s Stock Hits New High. At the opening of U.S. trading on July 9, NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares rose, climbing as much as 2.8% to USD 164.42 per share, pushing its market capitalization past USD 4 trillion for the first time and surpassing Microsoft to become the world’s most valuable technology company. Earlier this year, the sudden emergence of the DeepSeek model prompted renewed debate over whether demand for GPU chips would remain sustainable, leading to a sharp pullback in NVIDIA’s share price. In April, the Trump administration further restricted exports of NVIDIA’s H20 chips to China, triggering another adjustment in the stock. Even so, NVIDIA’s share price has still gained more than 20% so far this year. Since 2023, NVIDIA’s share price has risen more than tenfold. Now, the company’s market cap far exceeds other chipmakers, roughly equivalent to 39 Intels or 17.7 AMDs. There have been persistent questions in the market about whether NVIDIA’s valuation is justified and whether its momentum is sustainable. Jensen Huang responded to such concerns at this year’s GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in March, saying that global data center capital expenditure will reach USD 1 trillion by…...

On July 8, Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance announced that the island’s exports in June reached USD 53.32 billion, marking a new record high for a single month. However, what is noteworthy and concerning is that exports to the United States accounted for 32.4% of Taiwan’s total exports, significantly surpassing the 27.3% share of exports to Mainland China and Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the proportion of exports to ASEAN countries declined to 16.8%, and exports to Europe made up only 6.4%. At a time when Trump is imposing high tariffs globally, Taiwan’s rapidly increasing export dependence on the U.S. runs counter to the prevailing trend and carries considerable risk. On July 7, Trump sent letters to 14 countries, unilaterally announcing the tariff rates that the U.S. would impose on these countries, stating that they would take effect from midnight on August 1. Trump remarked that the August 1 effective date is “certain, but not necessarily 100% certain,” as there may still be room for negotiations if these countries are willing to offer terms favorable to the United States. At present, Taiwan has not received any notification, but both Japan and South Korea have been notified that a 25% tariff will apply. Compared…...

On July 7, U.S. President Trump announced that starting August 1, the United States will impose tariffs on imports from 14 countries. What are the specified tariff rates this time? Japan (24%), South Korea (25%), Kazakhstan (27%), Malaysia (24%), Tunisia (28%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (35%), South Africa (30%), Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (37%), Serbia (37%), Cambodia (49%), Thailand (36%), Laos (48%), and Myanmar (44%). On the July 6 broadcast of CNN’s State of the Union, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent had already indicated: “For countries that failed to reach an agreement with the United States in time, the Trump administration will impose reciprocal tariffs from August 1, in accordance with the policy announced in April.” Judging from the newly specified rates, they do not differ significantly from the reciprocal tariff rates announced on April 2. Therefore, following the passage of the Big Beautiful Act, Trump’s policy focus may temporarily shift back to tariffs and negotiations. The newly specified tariffs appear to be a pressure tactic aimed at countries that have not yet reached an agreement with the U.S., and still serve as a bargaining tool—effectively extending the negotiation window to August 1. The countries announced this time are likely the main focus…...

"When it comes to manufacturing, the most frequent discussions I hear now are about technology, not talent. But can the most advanced factories retain the best talent in the future? The answer is not necessarily," said Alaric, an author on Vancisco. "Whether the best talent chooses to enter manufacturing will determine whether this industry can sustain itself in the future." "Many manufacturing companies are successful and profitable, but will the next generation continue in this field? That’s uncertain, and it’s possible that they might abandon it. The issue of succession in manufacturing companies is not just a problem in one country, but in many countries," he said. Alaric believes that this issue needs to be addressed from within. "Entrepreneurs must redefine manufacturing, transforming the industry into a high-tech, high-income, and high-status field to attract passionate and idealistic young people." However, he also admits that this process is still being explored by countries, and there are no ready-made examples to follow. Looking back at global manufacturing development over the past few decades, Alaric pointed out that industries in Germany and the U.S. flourished in the last century, and later new manufacturing centers emerged in Japan, the Four Asian Tigers, and China.…...

On July 7, U.S. President Donald Trump posted letters to 14 countries on his self-created social media platform "Truth Social," announcing that the corresponding tariffs on these countries would be increased from the current suspended rate of 10% to between 25% and 36%, effective August 1. According to Trump’s previous statements, he plans to send letters to over 100 countries to increase tariffs. The first 14 countries to receive these letters include U.S. East Asian allies Japan and South Korea, as well as ASEAN countries such as Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos, and developing countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tunisia, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, and South Africa. Each of the 14 countries received a letter containing the same message: If goods are transshipped to evade higher tariffs, these countries will face even higher tariffs. This aligns with the agreement previously made between the U.S. and Vietnam. The full details of the U.S.-Vietnam agreement have not been published, but according to Trump’s wording on social media, all Vietnamese exports to the U.S. will be subject to a 20% tariff, while goods transshipped through Vietnam will face a 40% tariff. It is clear that Trump, in setting different tariff levels for each…...

Tesla's stock price continues to decline under the impact of multiple factors. On July 7, Tesla's stock dropped nearly 7% after hours, with its market value evaporating by over $70 billion (approximately ¥500 billion). This sharp fluctuation occurred three days after Musk announced the formation of the "American Party," a political move seen as a follow-up to his public confrontation with Trump over the "Big and Beautiful" bill. Dan Ives, a well-known analyst on Wall Street, pointed out that Musk's recent high-profile involvement in politics has triggered widespread concerns among investors. "Diverting attention from the critical moment of advancing the Robotaxi project could be one of the most unwelcome management decisions Tesla could make," Ives emphasized in his latest research report. Currently, Tesla faces multiple challenges: global deliveries have declined for two consecutive quarters, with 384,100 units delivered in Q2 2025, a 13.5% year-on-year decrease compared to last year; core management continues to face turmoil; and the highly anticipated Robotaxi trial operation has not met expectations. Tesla is under significant pressure, and Musk's decision to announce the formation of the "American Party" on July 5 has further intensified market uncertainty, leading to a 7% single-day drop in Tesla's stock on…...

Between 1989 and 1991, Japanese society was struck with fear as housing prices surged rapidly, forming a "real estate bubble." The call for "actively bursting the bubble" gained the upper hand. In 1991, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates consecutively, triggering the collapse of the real estate market. After the bubble burst, the Japanese government implemented counter-policies, such as increasing tax burdens and accelerating property foreclosures, which exacerbated negative public sentiment and formed a vicious cycle. From 1991 onwards, the Japanese real estate market remained sluggish for around 22 years, with Tokyo's housing prices at one point falling to less than half of the historical peak. Japanese manufacturing also fell into trouble due to decreased demand, and the stock market remained at a long-term low, plunging the Japanese economy into what became known as the "Lost 20 Years." Starting in 2013, Japanese housing prices gradually recovered from the slump. The catalyst for this change was the financial easing policies of "Abenomics" and the construction demands brought by Tokyo's successful bid for the Olympics. By 2025, Japanese housing prices had risen for 12 consecutive years, driving the Nikkei index to new heights and restoring young people's confidence in economic development.…...

On July 4th, President Trump signed the "Beautiful Bill," which raises the debt ceiling, increases the deficit, and legalizes "Trump Economics." What economic effects will this bill have, and will it trigger another "U.S. Debt Panic"? Bill Content: Total Deficit of $4.1 Trillion, Mainly a Continuation of Existing Policies The "Beautiful Bill" takes effect, and "Trump Economics" is fully legalized for the first time. On July 4th, Trump signed the "Beautiful Bill," which is the first legislation to fully legalize and institutionalize "Trump Economics." The 2018 "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" primarily focused on tax cuts, while the "Beautiful Bill" includes five major pillars: tax cuts, welfare reductions, strengthening defense, deporting immigrants, and developing traditional energy. The bill's overall deficit size is $4.1 trillion, with $700 billion in interest payments and a primary deficit of $3.4 trillion. Measured as a percentage of nominal GDP, the bill's scale is second only to the 1981 Reagan tax cuts. However, of the tax cuts, about 83% are extensions of existing TCJA cuts, and only 17% are new cuts. Trump also demonstrated stronger control over the Republican Party during the bill's formulation. In terms of power structure, the bill re-adjusts the balance of financial…...

In recent years, due to economic development, the widening income gap, and changes in consumption concepts, the phenomenon of consumption stratification in China has become increasingly prominent. This refers to the significant differences in consumer behavior, consumption models, and consumption levels across different social groups. Alaric, the author of the Vancisco website, points out that current consumption stratification presents a multi-dimensional characteristic, mainly including income levels, generational differences, and urban regional hierarchy. These factors together have led to significant consumption polarization. Specifically, in the high-end consumption sector, the continued weakness of traditional luxury goods reflects a fundamental shift in consumer motivation—consumers are no longer satisfied with expressing their identity through luxury goods but are increasingly pursuing the intrinsic value and experience of products. This shift has given rise to performance-oriented brands like Arc'teryx and luxury brands such as Ralph Lauren, which have won market favor through innovative designs and reasonable premiums. The middle class exhibits dual characteristics: on one hand, actively seeking affordable alternatives for ordinary daily goods, and on the other hand, adhering to the "less is more" consumption principle for core categories that offer emotional value or demonstrate taste. Alaric points out that, from a market structure perspective,…...

On the afternoon of July 3, 2025, the "Beautiful Bill," a budget reconciliation measure proposed by the 119th U.S. Congress—one of the large-scale tax and spending bills heavily pushed by President Donald Trump—was ultimately passed. The bill will now be submitted to Trump for his signature to become law. The passage of this bill has been quite suspenseful and is now considered finalized. Initially, on May 22, it was passed in the U.S. House of Representatives with 215 votes in favor, 214 votes against, and 1 abstention. After dramatic scenes in the Senate, including Republican defections, some senators not seeking re-election, and a 16-hour marathon reading, it was eventually passed with a vote of 51 in favor and 50 against. Vice President JD Vance cast the deciding vote to break the tie. All Democratic Senators voted against it, and 3 Republican Senators also voted against it. The bill was then returned to the House, where, despite strong resistance from Democratic Representatives, it was passed before the July 4 deadline set by President Trump. "Big and Beautiful," this is the name Republicans have given to the bill. What does "big" mean? There are two aspects: first, it is voluminous, spanning 940…...

People have yet to reach a consensus on any AI-related issues, but one expectation seems to have gained traction among most companies, investors, and analysts: AI will boost productivity across many sectors. Even if these gains can be realized, is it worth it? Many observers, including myself, expect that AI will significantly enhance productivity, and the increasing number of cases providing preliminary evidence seems to confirm this. Given the rapid expansion of AI capabilities, the decreasing costs of training and using large models, and the growing availability of open-source tools and systems, AI appears to be effectively applicable to nearly every industry and profession. However, the effective use of AI is not guaranteed, nor will it happen overnight, as it is influenced by factors such as acquisition, dissemination, and the learning curve. Even after overcoming these barriers, it is far from certain that the productivity boosts from AI will lead to widespread benefits in terms of employment and income. This will depend on the development of both AI tools and the labor market. AI tools are expanding rapidly. If most of the new capabilities focus on replicating human abilities to replace workers, then the productivity gains could lead to negative…...