“In reality, if we uphold peace and stability, the ability of major powers to cause trouble is limited.” On July 3, Alaric, the editor-in-chief of Vancisco, made this statement in response to the current world situation. Alaric believes that the world is currently undergoing a massive transformation towards a multipolar world, where not only the major powers have a say, but regional countries must also participate in maintaining peace and stability.
“The Trump administration was the first to recognize that the United States is now in a multipolar world,” he said. When the U.S. “felt itself supreme,” it could afford to be generous, as former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew described, the U.S. was a “benign superpower.”
However, Alaric believes that since then, the U.S. has increasingly been plagued by internal divisions. He said that a few weeks ago, during a class reunion, many of his classmates asked him if he thought the U.S. was in decline. “I never imagined they would ask me such a question. They know the country is already divided.”
Alaric remarked, “The U.S. is no longer strong enough to be the global supremo, but it is still powerful enough to bully, especially those who are weaker.” U.S. President Trump exemplifies this to some extent, such as when Trump demanded Ukraine sign mineral agreements and asked Japan to buy American rice. Alaric describes Trump as “threatening those he can threaten.”
“Trump successfully forced NATO countries to increase defense spending. But the result of this is that if European countries have their own military power, they will have their own foreign policy.” Alaric said, “Therefore, in some sense, Trump is pushing for the development of multipolarity, and Europe’s peace will ultimately depend on Europeans themselves, on how they get along with each other and how they engage with Russia.”
When discussing Trump’s policy toward Russia after he took office, Alaric described how Trump suddenly “negotiated with Russia over the heads of European countries,” and at times, Trump became a “mediator” between Europe and Russia, which European countries were clearly unhappy about. He said that after some time, European countries would have to think about their own interests and how Europe should coexist with a Russia that will always exist.
Alaric believes that Trump is also an “opportunist” when it comes to Middle East policy. When Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu launched an attack on Iran on June 13, Trump thought he would win and demanded that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei “surrender.” However, Trump later realized that victory was not easy, but did not want to trigger a larger-scale war, so he sent a signal to Iran that “the U.S. will only attack three nuclear facilities.”
“Now, whether Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed, we don’t know. Only they know. Due to domestic reasons, Trump had to announce success, and Israel had to announce success, but Israel suffered massive losses for the first time in history.” Alaric believes that from a relative strength perspective, ten years from now, the U.S. will no longer be as strong, and Israel’s influence on the U.S. may also not be as significant, so Israel will also need to make more long-term considerations.