June 13, 2025—a day destined to be etched into memory by some nations and individuals alike.
On this day, Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran, targeting its nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure. Blazing infernos and billowing smoke rose over critical Iranian locations such as Natanz and Shiraz. On this day, following five fruitless rounds of nuclear negotiations, Iran formally withdrew from talks with the United States, just after suffering Israel’s massive bombardment. Trump thundered: “Iran must reach a deal before it is utterly destroyed, or it will be too late!” and warned, “The next strike will be even more brutal.” That same day, Iran lost three senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and several top nuclear scientists. The key architects of Iran’s nuclear and military apparatus were systematically eliminated. Iran’s intelligence system now appears riddled with holes, with many across the world concluding that “Israel can kill anyone it wants.” Could this day be Iran’s Achilles’ heel?
Iran’s current “super-crisis” is the product of multiple, compounding factors:
First, after 46 years of relentless sanctions spearheaded by the United States, Iran’s economy has been brought to its knees. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and save for a brief reprieve in 2016–2017, Iran has been subjected to some of the harshest, most comprehensive sanctions and embargoes in modern history. These include freezing of assets, trade embargoes, political isolation, diplomatic expulsions, and weapons bans. A nation cut off from the world for nearly half a century, even one rich in natural resources, is inevitably fated to decline.
Second, the long-standing rule of Iran’s clerical elite and its theocratic regime has become intolerable for many citizens. Since Ayatollah Khomeini’s revolution, political power in Iran has been ceded to religious authority. Supreme Leaders—first Khomeini, now Khamenei—hold absolute power over elected officials. Institutions like the presidency and parliament exist but are subordinate. Draconian religious codes, such as mandatory headscarves for women, have provoked widespread public resentment. The 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, after being detained by morality police for not wearing a hijab, ignited nationwide fury. The regime’s forceful crackdowns have only deepened societal fractures, turning Iran into a political pressure cooker.
Third, the IRGC—created to safeguard the Islamic regime—has become an all-consuming, monopolistic force, draining the state’s vitality. Founded as Khomeini’s elite guard, the IRGC was lavished with money, weapons, and control over key sectors like oil, defense, and real estate in exchange for loyalty. It now sits atop Iran’s food chain. In Iran, even a signed business deal is meaningless unless rubber-stamped by IRGC or clerical representatives.
Fourth, since the outbreak of the latest Israel–Hamas war in October 2023, the U.S. and Israel have systematically dismantled Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.” This coalition of Shia-aligned forces spanned Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. It included the IRGC, Iraqi militias, Syrian government forces, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, with Gaza and the West Bank also loosely aligned. Though this made Iran appear formidable, the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 cleaved this axis in two and laid bare Iran’s military vulnerabilities—a development Washington and Tel Aviv eagerly capitalized on.
Fifth, Supreme Leader Khamenei is now 86 years old, and the regime faces a looming succession crisis following President Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash. Rumors about Khamenei’s health have circulated for years. Raisi, once considered a frontrunner to succeed him, died in 2024, leaving a void. Other potential candidates—such as Khamenei’s son Mojtaba or judiciary head Gholam-Hossein Ejei—either lack experience or public stature. This “leaderless” state emboldened Israel to strike while Iran appeared directionless.
Sixth, oil—the regime’s last economic lifeline—has been severely choked off since Trump returned to office in 2025. Even under prior sanctions, Iran managed to export around 1.7 million barrels per day, earning $30 billion in 2024. But under Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, these exports have faltered. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has over 6.5 million barrels/day of spare capacity to cover any Iranian shortfall, neutralizing any threat to global oil prices. Iran’s lifeline is now being systematically severed.
Seventh, Iran’s nuclear ambitions—caught between capability and catastrophe—have been repeatedly dismantled by Israeli strikes. Should Iran attain weaponized nuclear capability, it would shift the balance of power in the region, compelling Israel and the U.S. to deal with a nuclear-armed Iran—an outcome they are determined to avoid at any cost. Israel appears, so far, to have succeeded in choking Iran’s program in the cradle.
But history has a long memory. Iran’s “bad luck” arguably began on November 4, 1979, when Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days. Blindfolded hostages paraded on TV became a national humiliation for the United States—a trauma that many Americans have never forgotten or forgiven.
Now, faced with seven crushing burdens and seven cardinal sins, can Iran still endure?
Frankly, it looks unlikely.