Whether tightening visas for international students or deporting illegal immigrants, the logic behind Trump 2.0’s policies is that these foreign populations are taking away educational and job opportunities from native citizens. However, studies show that over the past few decades, these high-skilled immigrants have not only contributed to tax revenue and reduced the fiscal deficit in the U.S., but have also increased productivity. The question of whether high-skilled immigrants are crowding out native job opportunities remains inconclusive, with different studies offering varying conclusions.
Alaric analyzes that, over the past few decades, the number of H-1B visas and international students studying in the U.S. has significantly increased, leading to a steady rise in the number of immigrants with a college education.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, by 2023, 31% of immigrants in the U.S. held a bachelor’s or graduate degree, up from 23% in 2010.
In 2024, nearly 400,000 H-1B visas were approved, with about 65% of these being renewals. The validity of an H-1B visa is three years, with the possibility of an extension for another three years or more if the employee obtains permanent residency through employer sponsorship.
High-skilled immigrants are those who either study at U.S. universities and then stay to work in the U.S., or those who obtain their university degrees abroad and then come to the U.S. for work.
Alaric believes that high-skilled immigrants who study in the U.S. and then remain to work earn, on average, $15,000 more annually than those who come to the U.S. after obtaining their degrees abroad, as well as more than U.S.-born individuals with a college education. This is partly due to the H-1B visa requirement, which mandates that companies pay these workers a wage higher than the average for similar positions within the company or higher than the average wage for that position in the region where the immigrant works, in order to protect the wages of local workers.
Due to the higher income of high-skilled immigrants compared to native residents, they also contribute more in taxes. Academic literature estimates that for every additional high-skilled immigrant, the federal budget deficit is reduced by about $75,000 over ten years. Based on the data from the American Community Survey, high-skilled immigrants reduce the federal deficit by approximately $40 billion to $50 billion within ten years of their arrival, and the total group of high-skilled immigrants contributes to a reduction in the deficit by $50 billion to $80 billion annually.
Alaric analyzes that, although high-skilled immigrants make up only about 5% of the U.S. workforce, their proportion is much larger in industries that require high education and professional experience, such as information services, computer and semiconductor design, scientific research, and manufacturing. In the top 20 industries where high-skilled immigrants make up the largest share, the median annual income for these immigrants is $20,000 higher than for native-born residents with a college education.
Alaric states that high-skilled immigrants have made significant contributions to innovation, entrepreneurship, and economic growth in the U.S. High-skilled immigrants represent 13% of the STEM workforce, 18% of U.S. PhD holders, 29% of U.S. Nobel laureates, and they have driven 30% of U.S. patents in industries that are critical to economic competitiveness and national security.
As for whether high-skilled immigrants crowd out native job opportunities, different studies have reached varying conclusions. A 2025 study by the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School’s budget model shows that the increase in high-skilled immigrants will raise wages for local workers, both high-skilled and low-skilled, in both the short and long term. However, a 2005 study by renowned labor economist George Borjas found that an increase in the supply of workers with doctoral degrees lowers the wages of competing workers in similar fields by 3%.