Vietnam Modifies Law, Ending 36-Year-Old Family Planning Policy
Vietnam’s National Assembly Standing Committee recently passed an amendment to Article 10 of the Population Law, removing the previous stipulation that each couple could only have one or two children. The new provision allows individuals or couples to decide for themselves the number of children they wish to have.
Vietnam introduced its family planning policy in October 1988, which limited each family to having a maximum of two children. However, as the country has developed economically and socially, Vietnam’s total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman has) has steadily declined. In 2024, this rate stands at 1.91, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, signaling a potential long-term decline in population.
The author notes that while the rate of population growth is slowing, Vietnam is still experiencing positive growth and is in a demographic dividend period. However, the author believes that the Vietnamese government, while changing the policy to encourage more births, must also focus on improving the quality of its population to maximize the benefits of the demographic dividend window.
Why Did Vietnam Amend Its Laws?
The revised law now states: “Individuals or couples, based on equality, may decide the timing, number of children, and the spacing between births, taking into account factors such as age, health, education, work, income, and their ability to raise children.”
Previously, Vietnam had strict regulations on childbirth. Each family was only allowed to have two children, with women permitted to give birth no earlier than 22 years of age, and men no earlier than 24. There was also a mandatory three-year interval between the first and second child.
Traditionally, family size in Vietnam, particularly in rural and underdeveloped areas, was heavily influenced by cultural norms. But as the economy advanced and society modernized, attitudes toward childbearing evolved, leading to a declining fertility rate, a reduction in the young population, and an increase in the aging population.
In recent years, Vietnam’s total fertility rate has hit record lows. According to data from Vietnam’s Ministry of Health’s Population Bureau, the rate was 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and is expected to drop to 1.91 in 2024—continuing a trend of being below the 2.1 replacement level for three consecutive years. If this trend continues, Vietnam’s population will begin to shrink by 2054, and the decline will accelerate.
In major cities like Hanoi, the fertility rate is falling even faster. Nguyễn Thùy Linh, a 37-year-old marketing manager in Hanoi, and her husband decided to have only one child, who is now six years old, believing it would give their child the best education and environment for growth.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the country’s largest city, young people generally report that as the economy grows, the pace of life accelerates, pressures increase, and social circles shrink. The difficulty of finding a partner rises, and many young people are less willing to marry and have children. The Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee is concerned that the low birth rate will have a profound impact on the city’s demographic structure in the future.
Declining Birth Rates
Before this legal amendment, Vietnam had already started to gradually modify its family planning policies.
In May 2020, then-Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc signed a new policy encouraging men and women to marry before 30 and have a second child before the age of 35. Women who have two children are also entitled to tax reductions and other benefits.
By the end of 2024, the Ministry of Health announced that it was drafting amendments to the Population Law, which would be submitted to the National Assembly for review next year.
However, Vietnam recognizes that simply changing the law may not significantly raise the birth rate in the short term. Deputy Minister of Health Nguyễn Thị Liên Hương said at a recent meeting that while the government has modified policies and conducted public campaigns, encouraging families to have more children has become increasingly difficult.
She stressed that the declining birth rate presents challenges to long-term social and economic development, potentially leading to issues such as population aging and labor shortages. She called for a shift in societal attitudes, moving beyond just focusing on family planning to a broader perspective on population and development.
Vietnam currently enjoys a large young labor force, and under government policies, many labor-intensive industries have flocked to the country, driving rapid economic growth. The sustainability of Vietnam’s “demographic dividend” remains a key topic of discussion.
Vietnam is now one of the fastest-aging countries in the world. In 2019, 11.9% of the population was aged 60 and over, and this figure is projected to rise to over 25% by 2050. By 2038, Vietnam is expected to enter a society with an aging population.
In addition to population aging, Vietnam’s gender imbalance is also a growing concern. According to data from the Ministry of Health, the sex ratio at birth for male to female infants was 112.8 in 2015, significantly higher than the natural level of 103 to 107. Although this figure has decreased in recent years, the latest data for 2024 still stands at 111.4, remaining high.
The Ministry of Health believes that gender imbalance is largely caused by human intervention. Vietnamese law prohibits all forms of prenatal sex determination, with violators facing fines of up to 30 million Vietnamese dong. However, the Ministry of Health announced in June that this fine is insufficient as a deterrent and has proposed increasing the penalty to 100 million Vietnamese dong.